Türkiye - Erdogan's Endgame? - The rise of anti-government protests after Imamoğlu's arrest

Residents of Istanbul rally against the crackdown on opposition

INFORMATION

• Since anti-government protests began in Turkey on 19 March 2025, over 2,000 people, including journalists and activists, have been arrested in cities like Istanbul. Widespread protests broke out after the arrest of Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, along with more than 100 opposition members.

  
  

• Imamoğlu is said to be a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and was arrested over allegtions of corruption. He was charged with “establishing and managing a criminal organisation, taking bribes, extortion, unlawfully recording personal data and rigging a tender". He was also accused of "aiding an armed terrorist organisation," though this charge was not  included in the charges filed.

  
  

• Police have used force to disperse crowds, employing rubber bullets, pepper spray,  tear gas, and water cannons, particularly in Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. They also conducted nighttime raids on protesters’ homes.

  
  

  ASSESSMENT

  
  

• These anti-government demonstrations are said to be the largest the country has witnessed since the  2013 Gezi protests. Erdogan has accused the CHP of inciting protests, despite a ban imposed on opposition gatherings shortly after İmamoğlu's arrest. He labelled the demonstrations “movement of violence”.

  
  

• Local media has faced restrictions. The government reportedly banned media from covering these opposition protests and related information. The state broadcasting authority suspended ‘Sozcu TV’ for 10 days, while other channels airing opposition content faced fines and even in some cases suspensions. Furthermore, a BBC reporter was deported after being held for 17 hours and labelled a "threat to public order." More than 10 journalists have also been detained for allegedly promoting hate and publishing slanderous content. The protests have also provided a systematic means for the government to crack down on the media.

  
  

• Turkish courts become overwhelmed with cases from these anti-government demonstrations While some detainees have been released, their cases remain pending. Most of those arrested are charged with taking part in what the government calls “illegal rallies and marches.” The government also alleged that some of those arrested are facing drug charges and resisting arrest. The Turkish Journalists’ Union (TGS) has condemned the arrests of protesters and journalists. The union described the arrests as unlawful.

  
  

• Following his arrest, the CHP nominated İmamoğlu as their candidate for the 2028 presidential election. He is believed to be Erdogan’s main rival in the elections. Before his detention, Istanbul University announced it was revoking İmamoğlu's degree, which could jeopardise his presidential bid, as the Turkish constitution requires higher education for presidential candidates.

  
  

• Many opposition supporters believe İmamoğlu's arrest is politically motivated, and critics argue the case against the mayor is based on “secret witnesees and lacks credibility. A group of CHP lawmakers protesting outside the broadcasting authority office in Ankara claimed their party bus was "seized" by police. The continued demonstrations automatically reflect growing public discontent with the current government.

  
  

  FORECAST

  
  

• The opposition could leverage this incident to attract support from various groups that are dissatisfied with the government. The government may introduce new laws aimed at curbing dissent and to consolidate its power.

  
  

• The recent protests may evolve into a prolonged period of instability if the government fails to address the underlying problems. Members of some political parties who disagree with the crackdown, may shift their alliances, with some trying to distance themselves from the government.

  
  

• If violence continues, the government may face increased pressure from foreign powers. This could include public condemnations of the government's actions and demands for accountability concerning human rights violations.