UK - Scottish Gang Crisis Continues

Over the past few weeks, Scotland’s gang crisis has become harder to ignore as Edinburgh has experienced a surge in gang-related violence that have led to concerns of a turf-war and a lack of police resource to cope with it.

Turf War Concerns

Clashes between rival gangs have been reported from Edinburgh and Glasgow over drug territories with violence levels that are rapidly escalating. Methods used between the rivals have been firebombs, firearms, weapons. The past six weeks have seen over a dozen brutal attacks take place with private properties and children caught in the crossfire of the organised crime that the Police Federation admitted there are not enough officers to deal with. Arrests began taking place as part of a police investigation into opposing groups, of which at least 7 people have been arrested and charged in connection with drug and firearm offences. Alarmingly, a girl of 17-years-old is included within this cohort.

The turf wars have been attributed to the fall of notorious drug kingpin Jamie “The Iceman” Stevenson, who was jailed after a cocaine bust worth £100 million that was exposed by the infiltration of an encrypted EncroChat network by law enforcement. The turmoil that has unfolded from the depths of the underworld of Scotland is linked to a dangerous power vacuum since the removal of Stevenson. Graeme Pearson, a former crime agency director has expressed that a volatile atmosphere and environment has emerged due to a volatile mix of jailed bosses still pulling strings, ambitious newcomers trying to seize control, and old rivalries flaring up now that previous restraints are gone. All of which, are underpinned by a degree of paranoia about who might be responsible for betraying Stevenson, fuelled by greed, status and a desire for dominance in the criminal landscape of Scotland. When drilled down to the root, the eruption of violence seems to be a battle for control in the aftermath of a fallen empire.

Police Levels in Scotland

Police resourcing in Scotland has been problematic due to understaffing at a baseline level, therefore the rising demands of gang activity in Scotland extends the gap even further between what is required from and able to be delivered by the Scottish Police. The more strain that the police work under, results in a more reactive and reduced service which lacks proactivity and facilitates an environment of ever escalating hostility and criminality.

An under-resourced police force is an issue that Edinburgh has form for based on its population. According to national averages in Scotland, there should be approximately 309 officers per 100,000 residents, and despite Scotland’s overall higher per capita police presence in comparison to England and Wales, Edinburgh's allocation falls beneath national and city-specific averages. In 2022 the city was operating at a per capita police officer deficit of approximately 120 officers according to Lothian MSP Sue Webber and in 2023 the Edinburgh police staffing levels equated to approx. 208 officers per 100,000 residents.

Naturally, the issue has been presented in the Scottish Parliament by Edinburgh Eastern MSP Ash Regan where government action has been urged. The suggestion of a review to the police funding formula was put forward to provide a structure that is able to be more proactive and provide residents the reassurance that they deserve. Despite confirming that the incidents were deeply concerning, First Minister John Swinney pointed to increasing CCTV scrutiny, inquiry work and maintained that the responsibility of officer allocation in the capital is a Police Scotland matter, and not for politicians. The Scottish Government allocation to policing within the current budget stands at a £1.62 billion allocation, which is an increase of £57 million. Despite the rise in finances, this is not translating into enough frontline officers and begs the question as to why this is the case.

The Detail vs The Bigger Picture

Overall, the crime statistics show that since 2006-2007 there has been a 40% reduction in crime in Scotland, and a reduction of more than half in serious assaults and attempted murder which paints a positive long term trend picture. However, the current wave of gang activity and severe violence show that organised crime creates additional layers of complexity for policing, as well as severe disruption and fear within communities. This means the issue of organised crime pushes on from being isolated to a policing issue, to a public confidence and safety issue. Residents of the affected areas require more reassurances than statistical trends over time and funding figures, but need action, visibility, and for officers to get ahead of the violence before it spirals even further.