Yemen - Houthi Threatens To Resume Attacks On Israeli Ships Until Gaza Aid Blockade Is Lifted

Yemen’s Houthi Military Spokesperson General Yahya Saree

Intelligence Update:

●       On 11 March 2025, Yemen’s Houthi Military Spokesperson, General Yahya Saree, announced that attacks on ships passing through the Red and Arabian seas, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Gulf of Aden would resume after Israel blocked the entry of aid trucks into Gaza.

●       This comes after the group on 07 March 2025 threatened to resume its naval operations against Israel if it did not lift the blockade within four days. In an email statement, the Iran-aligned Yemeni group said that the ban will remain in effect until the crossings into the Gaza Strip are reopened.

●       General Saree confirmed that the ban took effect immediately at 2350hrs (local). Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi and other senior Houthi officials also reaffirmed the group's threat warning. In response, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) reportedly heightened the readiness of the country's aerial defence systems.

●       Houthi militants began maritime attacks in late 2023 in solidarity with Hamas following the outbreak of its war with Israel in Gaza. The attacks greatly impacted the shipping industry, forcing Western shippers to avoid the shipping route.

Fragile Gaza Conflict Ceasefire:

●       The threat of attacks follows the end of the first 42-day phase of a Gaza ceasefire mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States (U.S.), which expired on 01 March 2025.

●       Under the first phase of the three-phase ceasefire deal, which came into effect in January 2025, Hamas exchanged 33 Israeli hostages and five Thais for some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

●       Israel said it backed a U.S. proposal to temporarily extend the ceasefire in return for the continued release of Palestinian prisoners and detainees and the flow of higher volumes of aid into Gaza during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish holiday of Passover.

●       U.S. Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly put forward an updated proposal to extend the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip by 50 days. Negotiations would continue to explore additional extensions during the 50-day extension.

●       Hamas said it wanted to proceed with the second phase, which included the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces and an end to the conflict. Both Israel and Hamas have accused each other of violating the ceasefire. On 14 March 2025, Hamas said it had agreed to release an American Israeli dual national, believed to be the last living American hostage held in Gaza, after receiving a proposal from mediators to resume negotiations on the second phase of a ceasefire deal.

Broader Regional Picture and Actors:

●       Houthis have primarily targeted commercial shipping and U.S.-led maritime security forces in the Red Sea as part of its support of Palestine and the conflict in Gaza. Hamas praised Houthi’s recent announcement, saying that the decision “expresses the genuine stance of the Yemeni people and their leadership, as well as their true commitment to supporting the Palestinian people and their resistance.”

●       Houthis have launched attacks on over 100 vessels in and around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, sinking two vessels, seizing one, and killing four people. The Strait connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. In late 2024, the Houthis began to increasingly target Israel directly by launching drone and ballistic missile attacks on cities, including Tel Aviv.

●       In response, Israel launched retaliatory attacks on Houthi-controlled infrastructure, including fuel storage and port facilities in the key port of Hodeidah as well as power stations and other infrastructure in and around the capital city of Sana’a. On 04 March 2025, the U.S. State Department under President Donald Trump declared the Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO), saying “the Houthis’ activities threaten the security of American civilians and personnel in the Middle East, the safety of our closest regional partners, and the stability of global maritime trade.” 

●       The Biden administration in 2021 removed the Houthis’ Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) designation and de-listed it as a FTO due to concerns that it could hamper the delivery of crucial assistance to Yemenis. Ambassador Dorothy Shea, chargé d'affaires ad interim to the United Nations, warned the U.N. Security Council that “The U.S. will take action against the Houthis should they resume their reckless attacks in the Red Sea and surrounding waterways and on Israel.” Ambassador Shea also urged the U.N. Security Council to “respond to Iran’s flagrant violations of our resolutions through its continued arming of the Houthis,” pointing to the U.S’s intentions to reimpose the sanctions on Iran, the main backer of the Houthis.

Assessment and Implications on Global Maritime Trade:

●       Houthi missiles and armed drone strikes on shipping drastically reduced commercial traffic through the Red Sea, and while there have not been recent attacks by the Houthis on merchant shipping, the security situation remains volatile.

●       The threat of the resumption of attacks presents a severe risk to all transiting vessels, whether they are affiliated with Israel or not. This also threatens to disrupt global shipping as major carriers such as Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), Maersk, and Compagnie maritime d'affrètement-Compagnie générale maritime (CMA CGM) have been forced to alter their routes via the Cape of Good Hope for safety.

●       Also, recent actions and warnings from the Trump-led administration suggest that the U.S. government is prepared to launch large-scale attacks compared to the previous government.

GSA Forecast:

●       Israeli-owned ships continue to be Houthi targets, as the group pledged in January 2025 that “vessels wholly owned by Israeli individuals or entities and/or sailing under the Israeli flag” remained targets during the Gaza ceasefire.

●       IDF will, in response, likely increase its preparedness for the possibility of direct missile or unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strikes.

●       Further supply chain disruptions around strategic maritime routes are likely following the imminent renewal of Houthi attacks in and around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. 

●       Shipping companies are likely to continue their costly and time-consuming diversions around southern Africa, further straining global trade and logistics networks. This could in turn result in rising global shipping costs

●       Additionally, U.S. military intervention is likely to worsen regional tensions.